After reading comments directed to my proclamation that the Giants would win at most seven games in my last post, I decided to analyze the schedule they will face next year and point out the games I believe will be wins and losses for them. Keep in mind that I am predicting games thinking that both teams will be as healthy as possible. It is true that any big injury can make any good team a poor one, but that is not something that can be accurately accounted for this early in the year.
With that in mind here is the first half of the schedule analysis!
Week 1 – The first game of the season kicks off against the powerful Indianapolis Colts. Despite losing their marquee running back this off-season, expect the Colts to still have a high powered offense and to come out roaring looking to make up for a lost playoff run last season. The Giants are just outmatched at nearly every position in this game, from quarterback to wide receiver. They won’t be in this one after halftime.
My Final Prediction: Giants lose big in a disappointing home opener to the powerhouse Colts.
Week 2 - Playing in Philadelphia is never an easy thing to do, especially when the Eagles boast one of the top quarterbacks in the league. When healthy McNabb has practically owned the NFC East, and the Giants, in almost every season of his career. It’s hard to bet against the Eagles playing at home.
My Final Prediction: McNabb takes advantage of a Giants team still feeling the sting of a blowout loss the week before and pushes them to 0-2.
Week 3 – The gamers simply do not get easier for the Giants. After the Eagles they travel to Seattle to face the defending NFC Champions. The Seahawks are a great, let me repeat, great home team. They have gone undefeated in Seattle in two of the last three seasons. Something about playing at home just makes the Seahawks seem unbeatable.
My Final Prediction: This loss is going to be devastating but there is no going against a home team like Seattle. It may be hard to imagine after last year’s run, but I have the Giants starting 0-3 going into their bye week!
Week 4 – Bye week should allow the team to refocus on their next game.
Week 5 – Three straight losses and an extra week to think about where they are should have the Giants ready to play this game. Washington is a good team but not a great one. The Giants, like many NFL teams, do play well at home and should have enough firepower and motivation to win this one.
My Final Prediction: New York comes out angry and frustrated and finally wins a game, taking it straight to the Redskins.
Week 6 – After a disappointing start, New York should begin to excite the fans again while playing in Atlanta. Michael Vick is a tough task for any defense but looked human last season and the Falcons were a very inconsistent team overall. New York should have enough offense to outperform the good defense of Atlanta.
My Final Prediction: Look for the Giants to build off of last week’s win with a second straight win over the Falcons on a road.
Week 7 – The Giants will simply run out of steam in their visit to Dallas and first game versus division rival Cowboys. Their momentum from the last two weeks will allow them to stay in the game, but the Cowboys just seem too strong with the addition of Terrell Owens to their roster.
My Final Prediction: How good can the Giants be on the road? I chalk this game up as a loss because the Giants don’t have the defensive stoppers to hold Owens back.
Week 8 – Playing back at home against a playoff team after a road loss should get the G-Men feeling good about themselves again. Tampa Bay is not a bad team, but remember that their main quarterback now is Chris Simms. I really don’t see how the Buccaneers will be able to repeat last year’s success, and this should be an easy win for the Giants.
My Final Prediction: The Giants take this game and continue to do well at home since their first week loss.
Week 9 – Will Reggie Bush be playing for Houston? Probably, but it really won’t matter. The Texans simply are not a good team and do not have enough talent to keep up with too many teams in the NFL just yet. The Giants should have their second straight easy win with huge days from Manning and Burress.
My Final Prediction: Playing a bad team sure will help a mediocre team out in the wins column, this game should be the Giant’s gateway to a .500 record halfway through their season.
So that concludes my analysis on the games the Giants will win and lose for the first eight games the play this season. As you can see I have them starting out with a 4-4 record even after starting a disastrous 0-3. The second half of my analysis will be up next week, for now lets hear what you think of these games!
I must say I agree with the first half schedule analysis. However, I am still not quite sure of that Atlanta game. We may be able to pull off the Eagles game, since I am still not impressed with their receivers. Personally, it looks like a tough schedule, may need the defense to win some for us.
Posted by: RoyB at April 15, 2006 5:13 AMI do not agree with all your picks. I feel that the Giant can beat the Colts on opening day. The Colts offense tends to start off slow and the Giants offense last year started off hot. With a new running back I think the Colts offense are going to need a couple of extra games to get into the swing of things. I also feel the Eagles are still volunerable on offense. A healthy McNabb will help their offense, but he has no one to throw to. I think the Giants will also win this one in a hard fought second week game. The Falcons game worries me. I am on the fence with this one. With the schedule the way it is, I think the best the Giants can do is 5-3 in the first half of the season.
Posted by: Steve at April 15, 2006 6:25 AMi'll give you my game one analysis. the exact opposite. first off, the giants put 44 on the board against the colts in their dome with kerry clown at quarterback 4 years ago. i think it's the COLTS who get off to a lousy start coming off their 13-0 start last year. giants at HOME with a LOT to prove after debacle vs. Carolina. we all saw how to get to peyton manning in the playoffs last year. same tactic by giants week one, knock him on his ass, no edge...giants blow out colts.....next..........
Posted by: brian at April 15, 2006 7:22 AMI can't believe you are using a game from four years ago, when the Giants were a MUCH different team to justify picking them over a team that has had double digit wins for the last four seasons. The Giants have been nothing but inconsistant for the last half-decade.
Yes the Colts will be playing without Edge, but that doesn't mean their offense will be less potent. And if the Giants have something to prove, the Colts have everything to prove after last years playoffs. New York was not expected to go that far, while Indy was expected to be a lock for the Super Bowl.
Any disputes with my other seven picks brian? I know you in particular stated the Giants would be a winnng team this season.
Posted by: cochise at April 15, 2006 10:24 AMThe giants will beat the eagles, should have beat Seattle last year and will this year, and the cowboys will be a toss up along with washington. I think they'll come out to 6-2 through their first 8.
Posted by: Ryan at April 15, 2006 10:38 AMCan't say I agree with you. but I think what it's going to come down to is a) how much does Manning improve in the off season, he got hammered 2nd half of last season, defenses keyed in that he has a LOT of problems under pressure and throwing off his back foot, if he corrects that, I see a big improvement in the Giants off. b) How well the giants revamped secondary comes around, if they can improve over last year (and I don't see how they can't) it'll be tough for teams to move the ball against them.
I'll give you my version of the season:
week 1, Colts, probably going to drop this one in a close match
week 2, at Philly, I think they can take this one Philly has lost a lot of big play makers the last 3 yrs on both sides of the ball
week 3, at Seatle, I think they have a 50-50 shot at this one right now it's going to depend on a. and b. above
week 5, Washington, At home should be an easy win, "should be"
week 6, at Atlanta, Should be another win even with Vick
week 7, at Dallas, Playing against Parcells is never easy and at Dallas makes it harder, Giants lose close game
week 8, Tampa, Giants win at home again
week 9, Houston, this could be a surprise sleeper, Houston needs a lot of work but the Giants are notorious for dropping easy games, plus latest news on the wire is Bush is coming to NY to visit with the Jets, if the Jets trade up for him, and they pick up the Jets pics at #4, & 29 plus a 3rd rounder they could surprise a lot of people this year, maybe not play offs but still surprise ya.
I'd lean twards the Giants being 5-3 half way through the season but wouldn't want to rule out 6-2 or even 3-5 you never know with this team.
Your analysis is reasoned, based on the Giants team as it stands today, before the end of free agency and the draft. But I for one believe the Giants defense will be much improved over last year's squad, and coupled with an unchanged offense that ranked near the top of the league last year that'll be growing in experience working together, I don't see them being overwhelmed by anyone. The Giants organization is on the verge of taking on the aura and culture of the 49er in their haydays, when the best players were looking for ways to get themselves on that team. More than a few pro pundits made very similar predictions about the Giants performance last season, and they were shown to be way out in left field. Sure, the schedule's much tougher this season -- based on some measures the toughest schedule of all, considering a case can be made for the division being best in the league. They'll still win 10.
Posted by: Joe in San Diego at April 17, 2006 1:06 AMWow... What an interesting perspective from Giants fans across the country. I would have to say that there are really too many intangibles to be able to guage how this Giants squad is going to match up. The only thing I read that made no sense was the comparison to the Giants team of 2002 when they beat the Colts in the dome. The differences between that team, and the 2006 team are remarkable, and do not warrant my time to get into.
Certain areas of emphasis need to be looked at here, when disecting the teams needs. If the Giants can improve one key stat in my opinion, and remain constant in where they were last year, I feel that they can be successful. Opponents had a field day with us last year on 3rd down. It just wasn't right to see so many 3 and longs converted into 1st downs. 3rd and long is a passing down, and I credit the fact that opponents were so successful to the fact that our secondary was sub-par.
I was not pleased with the play of Curtis DeLotch last season at all. He was beat consistantly up and down the field. There were so many games where I would see an open reciever, and know that #39 was going to be a few steps behind. However, I do think it is unfair to beat him up so much. He is a young player who was put into a difficult situation. Gibril Wilson is clearly a ball hawk, and can play in the league. A year or two more of focus and practice should have him playing at a much higher level. Corey Webster was a poor pick in the 2nd round of last years draft. The Giants, in my opinion looked too much at Websters playing abilities at Louisiana State before his ACL injury before his senior season. The player I feel the worst for is Will Peterson. He is a strong cornerback in this league, and I feel confident in his ability to match up against most of the top recievers in the league. He has been prone to injuries however, and it is unfortunate to see how his short career has deteriorated. As sad as it is to say, to retain Peterson would, in my opninon be a mistake. In 2002 when Will Peterson and Will Allen were breaking onto the scene, many specualated that they would form the tandum of greatness. However, once the injuries to Peterson started creeping up, forcing Allen into the lead cover role, his performance slipped.
The additions of Will Demps, Sam Madison, and R.W. McQuarters are solid ones, and improve the secondary by a slim margin. The upgrades were like taking a C- Term paper, running it through the spell check, and turing it into a C paper. Needs the Giants need to be looking at in the draft are at Strong Safety. That position is one that can strike fear into the heart of any opponent. When the Giants match up against Roy Williams in Dallas, and Sean Taylor in Washington it is quite visable the level of play these players bring, and how critical their position is.
The Linebackers are another questionmark. Before the Panthers game in the playoffs, I told a buddy on the way to the game, the Giants would be lucky to hold the Panthers to under 30 points. While injuries depleated the squad exponentially, the poor play of the linebackers was unacceptable towards the end of the season. Once Pierce went down, the linebackers squad was without a hope. Pierce went down in the 1st quarter of the Eagles game in Philly. From the 2nd quarter, the Giants were toarched by Ryan Mote (who is this guy)... Larry Johnson ran for 200 yards on us (Lucky to get a win in that game)... Clinton Portis in Washington (Did they even show up to play there). If the Raiders had had a healthy Lamont Jordan, they would have run much more successfuly over the Giants. As it is, the Giants were able to contain backup running backs in the mud of Oakland on New Years Eve, and then flew back east to have the Panthers ram the ball down our throat every chance they had. Pierce will be fully healthy, as will Chase Blackburn, and Carlos Emmons. The inevidable loss of Nick Griesen will hurt the team much more than anticipated. He stepped up and played admirably for a patch work squad that was reeling from losses of Emmons, and Reggie Torbor through the middle of last season. He is the player that held (loosely) the linebacking corps together until the loss of Pierce. Chase Blackburn is not an every down NFL player, Carlos Emmons is often hurt, and Reggie Torbor is still ailing from the hamstring injury that left him unable to walk during the playoff debacle. It's unfortunate that Griesen waited in the wings to take his shot at linebacker from the time he was drafted from Wisconsin only to play, play well, and then not get paid accordingly by the team he served. Antonio Pierce can not do this all by himself, and the Giants need to bolster thier linebacking corps in this off season. It's a shame Lavar Arrington is askign for as much money as he is. The free agent market has clearly shown that he is not going to get this money... However, over time hopefully the Giants will be able to land him if his price comes down.
Depending on these needs that should be addressed, there is still alot to be seen about this 2006 team. Areas I am not worried about are the Offensive line (the line was solid last year, and quality backups have been added) Quarterbacks, Running backs, and wide recievers. Where the Giants do lack a good 3rd reciever, they make up for it with a great running back who can come out of the backfield to catch passes, a solid tight end who when focused can catch any ball thrown his way, and Tim Carter who can stretch the field with his speed (though his durability and hands leave much to be desired).
As akward as it is to say, special teams are locked down as well. Feagles returning is a key decision... Feely as a solid kicker who can kick well in the Meadowlands and Chad Morton, and Willie Ponder returning kicks and punts are very important players who step up every week.
The Giants will make the playoffs if
- They aren't injured
- They add depth at linebacker and secondary
- Eli Manning continues to improve
These are huge question marks, and obvious ones that any "more than casual Giants fan" could point out.
If we can stop these teams on 3rd down, we will be in great shape. However, to do so... will take alot of work, and roster additions.
Posted by: Kris at April 17, 2006 3:49 PMI have alot of hope for the G-men but most every giants fan seems to think it boils down to defence. I disagree, their "d" didn"t lose the carolina game, their "o" did! Their "d" will be fine, we go as far as the "o" WANTS TO TAKE US. My point is Points! 0 in the bigest game of the year is unacceptable. We need to see inprovement from both Manning AND THE COACHES. Run more, short timing routes that can break big, and what happened to the swing pass to barber? All would have made that game alot different
Posted by: bob at April 24, 2006 10:59 AM