May 2, 2004
Will Eli Manning lead the Giants to a Super Bowl?
I just finished reading a very interesting review of Super Bowl XXXV (the one when the Baltimore Ravens crushed our Giants). It presents a theory that goes something like this:
In the NFL cycle, there are preiods of time where defenses rule and periods of time where teams with franchise quarterbacks dominate. Kerry Collins was not good enough to pass against the Ravens defense:
"I sucked," said Collins about his 15-for-39, 112-yard, four-interception stinker. He admitted he was confused and bewildered at times by a Ravens defense that pounded him and forced him to hurry his throws. He found out that this defense plays even faster and hits even harder than it appears on tape, which is something every opponent learns when first exposed to the Ravens' whirlwind.
Dilfer missed a lot of opportunities too (remember that play when Sehorn fell and Dilfer missed the wide open receiver?). But the point of the areticle was that the 2000 playoff Quarterbacks were not that great, but in 1995 the playoff QBs were great:
Think about it. Among the starting quarterbacks in the playoffs were Jay Fiedler, Aaron Brooks, Donovan McNabb, Daunte Culpepper, Shaun King, Gus Frerotte and Rich Gannon. The first five were in their first year as full-time starters; Frerotte is a journeyman backup, and Gannon finally had a magnificent season after laboring for 11 years in the league. Compare the state of NFL quarterbacking now to even five years ago. That's when you had Favre, Young, Elway, Marino, Aikman and Bledsoe. At least one of those six played in Super Bowls 27 through 33, and the MVP of Super Bowl 34 was Warner.
I think we can see that more recently, playoff teams are led by better quarterbacks than they were in 2000. Don Banks wrote about Peyton Manning, Brett Favre, Steve Mcnair, Tom Brady, Donovan McNabb. McNabb was on the list of inexperienced QBs for 2000 but after his pro bowl experiences he has to be considered one of the NFL QB stars.
If we're entering a cycle where you need a star QB to be special, Eli Manning was the right choice. Sure Strahan thinks that thinks that releasing Collins hurts the team's chances. Let's see if anyone offers him a job as a GM when he retires. For now he doesn't get paid to make personnel decisions. He should take Mike Lupica's advice: "...shut up and play the kind of football for which he is paid a small fortune."
Every Collins supporter argues that since Collins is excellent when he's not pressured, we should concentrate on the offensive line and forget about changing the QB. The fact is that a good offensive line can't protect a QB from every blitz. The QB has to be able to make decisions under pressure, something that Collins wasn't able to do well. Something that the Giants need Eli Manning to do well.
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Posted by James Trotta at May 2, 2004 7:21 PM"something that Collins wasn't able to do well"
I disagree.
He was not able to do it always. That means he is not Joe Montana or John Elway.
He was not able to do it almost always. That means he is not Brett Favre, Steve Young, Dan Marino, or Jim Kelly.
But Collins was and is a star quarterback who was able to do that well an awfully large percentage of the time, as his two trips to the NFC Championship and beyond with flawed teams demonstrates.
Don't get me wrong. I love Manning, am thrilled we got him, and with the salary numbers I understand the Collins move even if I think we will be worse off this year. But Collins was and is a very good quarterback who does not deserve the negativity he gets for the Ravens loss or last season's debacle. He didn't blow the lead against the Niners two years ago; our defense and inability to run or play passable special teams did.
Posted by: Gerry at May 3, 2004 8:08 AMI agree 100% that Kerry Collins is a very good QB. But he's not a star QB and that may be what it takes to win in the NFL for the next few years (as it was needed when the league was dominated by Aikman, Elway, & co.). Hopefully Eli will be our star QB.
Posted by: James Trotta at May 4, 2004 12:01 AM"that may be what it takes to win in the NFL for the next few years"
I don't know. I remember when the league was being dominated by Joe Montana and John Elway and Dan Marino, a very very good (but not great to that level) Phil Simms won a Super Bowl, and some real mediocrities like Doug Williams and Mark Rypien. And I do not mean to be mean to Jeff Hostetler, but he was not exactly a Hall of Famer.
I do think the teams with the top QBs are going to win a majority of the coming Super Bowls, just as the majority of the Super Bowls over the last 25 years were won by Joe Montana, Brett Farve, John Elway, Steve Young, Tom Brady, and Troy Aikman.
Posted by: Gerry at May 4, 2004 10:53 AM